Papers on International Economics - Trade and Exchange Rates

 

* Book Review: "Globalization and its Discontents, by G. Stiglitz" [Journal of Libertarian Studies, 18 (1), Winter 2004, pp. 89-99] download.

*  Book Review: "The Wind of the Hundred Days – How Washington Mismanaged Globalization, by J. Bhagwati” [Journal of Economics/Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie, 74, 3, 2001, pp. 325-328] download.

*  An explanation of the dynamics of protectionism [Open Economies Review, 11, 3, July 2000, 279-293] download
Trade policy has been the rule during this century. Traditional theories however fail to provide convincing explanations about why the nature of trade policy has changed over time, and on why protectionist pressures have not always been successful. This paper suggests that change in the nature and intensity of protectionism depends on the deviation of economic performance from expectations, on the demand for institutional change, and on the size of the existing distortions. This view is then applied in order to shed new light on the role of trade policy before and after World War II.
 
*  Exchange rate management  in Eastern Europe: a Public-Choice Perspective (with J. Macey), [Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, 2/3, Juin-Septembre 1995, 259-275; International Review of Law and Economics, 16, 2, June 1996, 195-209. ] download
  The paper presents a public-choice analysis of the existing exchange-rate regimes in transition economies, with special reference to Eastern Europe. The links between policy making, rent seeking and exchange-rate regimes are thus examined in detail from a theoretical point of view, and then compared with the existing empirical evidence. Some comments about the role of the West and of international organizations are also put forward.
 
*  Partial adjustment without tears. A tale for the tolar (with J. Mencinger) [Empirica, 22, 1995, 83-101] download
  The design of a monetary system in Slovenia was influenced by the heritage of persistent shortages of foreign exchange. This and other considerations prompted a decision that a new currency - the Tolar - was to float on two separate foreign exchange markets: a market for current-account transactions, and a market for capital-account transactions. Actual developments differed considerably from forecasts, and the Tolar turned out to be stronger than expected.
  The aim of the paper is to present, estimate and test a simple model describing the behaviour of the Tolar in the first period of high uncertainty; and to assess its relevance for the real world. Exchange-rate movements are analyzed as if they were adjusting to the expected price level. The results imply that the dealers do not wait for new data on prices to be disclosed. They try to anticipate the likely effects of inflation on the exchange rate. It is shown that interventions by the Central Bank did not affect the SIT/DM exchange rate appreciably. The answer to the question whether other Eastern European countries could have benefitted from the "short-run story of the tolar" is inconclusive, if not negative.