globals [] patches-own [loan ;the amount of microcredit the bank can provide raw-materials ;if true there's a raw materials supplier on the patch ] turtles-own [wealth ;turtles' wealth borrower? ;if true the turtle has got a microcredit loan debts ;the loan's amount repayment ;indicates if the turtle has repayed the debt provisions ;amount of raw material diamonds ;number of bought diamonds produced-diamonds ;number of produced diamonds producer? ;true if turtle has produced at least one diamond labor ; employed? ;true if turtle has worked at least once ] ;############################################ SETUP ############################################ to setup ca crt turtles-number setup-turtles set pcolor-of patch -16 4 green ;the microfinancial institution is green set loan-of patch -16 4 microcredit-available ;microcredits available is set using the slider set raw-materials-of patch 0 16 true set raw-materials-of patch 12 -8 true set pcolor-of patch 0 16 grey ;the raw materials supplier is on the grey patch set pcolor-of patch 12 -8 grey end to setup-turtles set-default-shape turtles "person" ask turtles [ setxy (random-float screen-size-x) (random-float screen-size-y) set wealth random 70 ;wealth each turtles start with is different set color pink - 1 set borrower? false set producer? false set employed? false set provisions 0 set diamonds 0 set labor 0 ] end to go ask turtles [move] ;this procedure makes turtles move ask turtles [borrow] ;this procedure makes turtles get a microcredit ask turtles [supplier] ;this procedure makes turtles buy raw materials ask turtles [produce] ;this procedure makes turtles produce diamonds ask turtles [trade] ;this procedure makes turtles buy and sell diamonds ask turtles [hire] ;this procedure makes turtles hire other turtles stop-loan update-plot end to move lt random 360 fd random 4 end ;############################################ MICROCREDIT ACTIVITY ############################################ to borrow if (wealth > loan-limit and loan > 10 and borrower? = false) [ ;the bank must have some loans available and the turtles can't already be borrowers set wealth (wealth + 10) set color green ;when turtles get the loan, they turn green set debts (debts + 10) set loan (loan - 10) set borrower? true stop-loan ] fd random 5 repay end to stop-loan if loan-of patch -16 4 = 10 ;the bank must have a minimum reserve [stop (borrow)] end to repay if (borrower? = true and produced-diamonds > 6 and pcolor = green) [ ;producing diamonds, turtles can repay their debts set wealth (wealth - 10) set color white set debts (debts - 10) set repayment (repayment + 1) set loan-of patch -16 4 (loan-of patch -16 4 + 10) set borrower? false] end ;############################################ PRODUCTION ############################################ to supplier if ((borrower? = true or repayment > 0 and wealth > 40)and pcolor = grey) [ ;not every turtle can buy raw materials. They must be borrower or still have wealth > 40 after the repayment set provisions (provisions + 5) set wealth (wealth - 2) fd 2 ] end to produce if (provisions > 6 and labor > 4)[ ;turtles must have both raw materials and labor to produce diamonds set diamonds (diamonds + 1) set provisions (provisions - 7) set color yellow set producer? true set produced-diamonds (produced-diamonds + 1) ] end to hire if ((borrower? = true and provisions > 5) and count other-turtles-here with [employed? = false] > 0) ;if turtles have got a loan and raw materials, they can hire other turtles [employ] end to employ let worker 0 set worker random-one-of other-turtles-here with [wealth < 30 and employed? = false] ;if turtles are rich they don't want to work if worker != nobody [ ;i.e. there's an unemployed turtle around set labor (labor + 2) set labor-of worker (labor-of worker - 2) set wealth (wealth - 4) set wealth-of worker (wealth-of worker + 4) set employed?-of worker true set color-of worker red ] end ;############################################ TRADING ############################################ to trade if ((wealth > 30 and producer? = false) and count other-turtles-here with [diamonds > 0] > 0) [buy] end to buy let seller 0 set seller random-one-of other-turtles-here with [diamonds > 0 and producer? = true] if seller != nobody [ set diamonds (diamonds + 1) set wealth (wealth - 11) set diamonds-of seller (diamonds-of seller - 1) set wealth-of seller (wealth-of seller + 11) set color blue ] end ;############################################ REPORTS ############################################ to-report total-debts ifelse any? turtles [report (sum values-from turtles [debts])] [report 0] end to-report total-diamonds ifelse any? turtles [report (sum values-from turtles [diamonds])] [report 0] end to-report nrepayment ifelse any? turtles [report (sum values-from turtles [repayment])] [report 0] end ;############################################ PLOTS ############################################ to update-plot set-current-plot "Populations" set-current-plot-pen "employed" plot count turtles with [employed?] set-current-plot-pen "poor" plot count turtles with [wealth < 20 or diamonds < 1] set-current-plot "Producers" set-current-plot-pen "producers" plot count turtles with [producer?] end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 210 10 640 461 17 17 12.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 CC-WINDOW 5 475 968 570 Command Center 0 BUTTON 4 10 67 43 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER T NIL BUTTON 4 51 67 84 NIL go T 1 T OBSERVER T NIL MONITOR 104 253 176 302 NIL total-debts 3 1 MONITOR 6 254 100 303 NIL total-diamonds 3 1 SLIDER 5 110 177 143 turtles-number turtles-number 2 400 200 1 1 NIL SLIDER 6 154 178 187 microcredit-available microcredit-available 0 150 100 10 1 NIL MONITOR 6 319 86 368 NIL nrepayment 3 1 PLOT 696 30 959 206 Populations NIL turtles number 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true PENS "employed" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "poor" 1.0 0 -6459832 true SLIDER 7 192 179 225 loan-limit loan-limit 20 50 30 1 1 NIL PLOT 695 236 959 394 Producers NIL NIL 0.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 true true PENS "producers" 1.0 0 -8630108 true @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- This model simulates a small and simple economy in a poor country with a microfinance institution. The turtles start the simulation with a random level of wealth and they can then obtain a loan; if they do, they can buy raw materials, hire other turtles with a lower wealth level and produce some goods (symbolized by diamonds), which can be sold to other turtles. HOW IT WORKS ------------ The turtles, which are all pink at the beginning, start walking with random movements; if they walk over the patch which represents the bank, if microcredit is still available, they can obtain some (and they turn green). Once they have got it, they keep on moving and, if they walk over one of the two patches standing for traders, they can buy some raw materials. If they do so and they meet with some turtles with a lower wealth level and no microcredit obtained, they hire them (the contractor becoming yellow and the workers red), paying a wage which contributes to improve the condition of poorer turtles. Once they have obtained a loan, bought raw materials and hired some other turtles, the "entrepreneur turtles" start producing goods which can be sold to other turtles that have started with a higher wealth level and they're neither entrepreneurs nor workers (those buying diamonds turning blue). By selling the products, the diamonds producers obtain a payment which repays their investments and grants them a gain, so that they can refound the loan (becoming white in this case). HOW TO USE IT ------------- Start the simulation by clicking "setup". Then, after clicking "go", the turtles start moving and producing in the way explained above; they keep on doing so until the "go" button remains pressed. Buttons: setup resets everything to the random-beginning values and releases in the simulated economy a number of turtles which can be chosen by the "number of turtles" slider. Buttons: go if clicked, the model starts running. Sliders: turtles-number on the left of the screen, this slider allows you to choose the number of turtles you'd like to start the simulation with. Sliders: debts-available this slider allows you to change the amount of debts available in the bank. Sliders: loan-limit this slider allows you to change the wealth's treshold necessary to have access to the loan market. Monitors: on the left of the screen, below the start and go buttons, there are three monitors which indicate the total amount of debts granted by the bank, the total number of diamonds produced and the number of repayments. Plot: Production this plot monitors the number of diamonds producers. Plot: Populations this plot indicates the trend of the number of employed turtles compared to the number of poor turtles. THINGS TO NOTICE ---------------- When the setup and go button are clicked, the turtles immediatly start to do economic transactions: some of them obtain a loan and then buy raw materials and hire workers, some others buy diamonds and so on. After running the model for a few cycles, you see how a micro-credit institution can improve the general wealth level of a poor society. In particular, the number of poor turtles immediatly decreases, meanwhile the number of workers, producers and diamond buyers increases. THINGS TO TRY ------------- Try different values of "microcredit-available". How does the model change if the amount of loans available for the turtles increases? Move the slider of "turtles-number". How does this variation affect the results of the model? Try different values of "loan-limit". Which are the effects on the model if you decrease the threshold necessary to obtain a loan? EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- This model simplifies the necessary procedures the turtles have to pursue to obtain the loan. Since microcredit, in the real world, is usually based on the constitution of a group of borrowers, one extension to the model could be to create this kind of groups where loans can be received in a continuous sequence. In our simulation every borrower is warrantor of himself, while in the reality it is the whole group of borrowers that guarantees for every loan. In our model, we hypothesize that the bank grants its loans at an interest rate equal to zero. The presence of an interest rate, applied by the bank on its loans, could therefore represent another possible extension. Our model shows a close economy where only one bank exists and turtles can trade only among themselves; that means that after some cycles no more diamonds can be produced because of the endogenous lack of money. The model could be improved by opening the economy to foreign investments and trades, giving the possibility to the economy to continue in the direction of growth. A further improvement could be to add the role of the information in the model, so that the turtles could become entrepreneur because of the informations they receive from the turtles that already are producers. CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- Hoekstra, R.(2005). 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